22.3.19

nature on death of statistical significance

long overdue. the world is not black and white. everything's on spectra, that require careful consideration. we need to learn to accept uncertainty and nuance, in a world increasingly using black and white thinking.

"we are not advocating a ban on P values, confidence intervals or other statistical measures — only that we should not treat them categorically... We must learn to embrace uncertainty. One practical way to do so is to rename confidence intervals as ‘compatibility intervals’ and interpret them in a way that avoids overconfidence."

instead of renaming confidence intervals, why not just report sigma values, like physicists already do? that makes it clear significance is on a scale, and challenges readers to make their own judgement

"Third, like the 0.05 threshold from which it came, the default 95% used to compute intervals is itself an arbitrary convention. It is based on the false idea that there is a 95% chance that the computed interval itself contains the true value, coupled with the vague feeling that this is a basis for a confident decision. A different level can be justified, depending on the application."

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00857-9

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